Is Astra pulling a scam, or is Kerrisdale Capital?

 Or is Kerrisdale Capital just too stupid to understand space startups?  Or is Kerrisdale Capital a short seller trying to drive the stock price down through the power of bullshit so they can make money from it? 

Let's get this straight: Investing in space launch startups is gambling.  There's an old joke about this: "How do you make a small fortune in the aerospace industry?  You start with a large one."  It's gambling.  If you don't know that investing in space launch startups is gambling then maybe you shouldn't be investing in space startups. 

Kerrisdale Capital claims that Astra mis-stated their post merger cash on hand, and rather than having enough cash to run through 2025 they only have enough to run through 2023.  Big deal.  Is it an intentional violation of securities law, or did someone just underestimate their burn rate?  Or is Kerrisdale inflating their burn rate?  Again: It's gambling, and if you don't know it's gambling then maybe you shouldn't be investing in space launch startups.  

Kerrisdale claims that "the seemingly mundane issue of finding somewhere to launch is a risk to Astra's long-term vision because contrary to management's oft repeated claim -- Astra can't launch from anywhere."  This is nonsense.  Astra already has a place to launch: Kodiak Island Spaceport.  Astra designed their launch infrastructure to be portable, and it all fits into, IIRC, 6 shipping containers.  They fly the whole mess to Kodiak for their test launches.  They could launch from Kwajalien Island for equatorial launches.  They are negotiating a lease at Wallops Island.  They're negotiating a lease at Cape Canaveral.  Heck, they could launch from a good size parking lot if they could get the permissions.  Any problems they might have in finding places to launch aren't physical, but legal.  If Kerrisdale can't figure this out then maybe they shouldn't be investing in space startups.  

This is one of the problems with the financialization of tech startups in general, and space startups in particular: Bean counters demand guaranteed returns, and space startups often run into technical issues that prevent them from delivering those guaranteed returns.  If you can't figure this out then maybe you shouldn't be investing in space startups. It's gambling, pure and simple. 

Disclaimer: I have a position in Astra Space.  I am not a professional investment adviser, and if you need one then you should hire one.  I am not an expert in spaceflight, I'm just a guy with an opinion and a big mouth. 

Update: Unfortunately, this did not age well.  Astra is going bankrupt because of criminal mismanagement.  They've failed to get payloads to orbit enough that all of their potential customers bailed out.  Now they're going into the business of building parts for other businesses.  Criminal mismanagement.